← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5475241
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 77.0%, up 5.5pt over 24h, on a 18.0¢ spread.
Implied probability77.0%
Bid / ask / mid64.0¢ / 82.0¢ / 73.0¢
Spread18.0¢ (24.7%)
Change 24h+5.50pt
Change 7d+12.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$14,670
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)4
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 48 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.08
RSI (14, hourly)47.8
Realized vol 7d3.12pt
Change 1h+1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 4h.
Time to resolve0d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.