← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5476380
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.0%, down 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
Implied probability3.0%
Bid / ask / mid2.6¢ / 3.5¢ / 3.0¢
Spread0.9¢ (29.5%)
Change 24h-0.15pt
Change 7d-19.95pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,486
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$630 / $103
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 64 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.89
RSI (14, hourly)64.0
Realized vol 7d1.26pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.