← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5479391
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 48.3%, up 19.8pt over 24h, on a 2.2¢ spread.
Implied probability48.3%
Bid / ask / mid47.4¢ / 49.6¢ / 48.5¢
Spread2.2¢ (4.5%)
Change 24h+19.85pt
Change 7d+45.60pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 39/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$32,304
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$313 / $374
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score39.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 43 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.01
RSI (14, hourly)43.4
Realized vol 7d1.81pt
Change 1h+0.90pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 16h.
Time to resolve0d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.