← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5479392
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 9.7%, down 26.5pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
Implied probability9.7%
Bid / ask / mid8.8¢ / 9.7¢ / 9.3¢
Spread0.9¢ (9.7%)
Change 24h-26.50pt
Change 7d+7.25pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$43,882
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$946 / $235
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 15 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.46
RSI (14, hourly)14.8
Realized vol 7d1.32pt
Change 1h-1.30pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 16h.
Time to resolve0d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.