← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5568258
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.0%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability3.0%
Bid / ask / mid3.3¢ / 5.3¢ / 4.3¢
Spread2.0¢ (46.5%)
Change 24h+2.55pt
Change 7d-2.15pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$89,598
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$570 / $406
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)5
Liquidity score40.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 58 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.17
RSI (14, hourly)58.4
Realized vol 7d0.58pt
Change 1h-0.25pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.