← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5568259
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 90.5%, down 6.3pt over 24h, on a 1.1¢ spread.
Implied probability90.5%
Bid / ask / mid89.4¢ / 90.5¢ / 90.0¢
Spread1.1¢ (1.2%)
Change 24h-6.30pt
Change 7d+1.20pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 55/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 13% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$220,340
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$6,113 / $15,307
Imbalance13% bid
Large trades (>$1k)18
Liquidity score55.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 28 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.92
RSI (14, hourly)28.3
Realized vol 7d0.67pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.