← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5571194
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.5%, up 5.3pt over 24h, on a 1.3¢ spread.
Implied probability15.5%
Bid / ask / mid13.0¢ / 14.3¢ / 13.7¢
Spread1.3¢ (9.5%)
Change 24h+5.25pt
Change 7d-1.40pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$23,500
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,123 / $1,309
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score44.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 62 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.14
RSI (14, hourly)61.8
Realized vol 7d0.93pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.