← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5572738
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, up 3.3pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid8.0¢ / 8.1¢ / 8.1¢
Spread0.1¢ (1.2%)
Change 24h+3.30pt
Change 7d-1.60pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$79,214
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,330 / $690
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)8
Liquidity score50.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 63 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.58
RSI (14, hourly)63.3
Realized vol 7d0.62pt
Change 1h-0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.