← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5572739
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 84.6%, down 6.2pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability84.6%
Bid / ask / mid85.0¢ / 85.4¢ / 85.2¢
Spread0.4¢ (0.5%)
Change 24h-6.15pt
Change 7d+1.60pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 61/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$82,817
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,058 / $20,038
Imbalance12% bid
Large trades (>$1k)8
Liquidity score60.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 35 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.94
RSI (14, hourly)34.9
Realized vol 7d0.76pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.