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Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

14.1% implied · bid 14.1¢ · ask 14.2¢

The market prices this at 14.2%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability14.2%

Bid / ask / mid14.1¢ / 14.2¢ / 14.1¢

Spread0.1¢ (0.7%)

Change 24h+0.00pt

Change 7d-0.70pt

Moderately liquid (score 65/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,639

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$21,257 / $9,483

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score64.9 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.20

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.04pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 794d 7h.

Time to resolve794d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%