← Explore · Polymarket · Market 559652
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.8%, down 1.4pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability15.8%
Bid / ask / mid15.7¢ / 15.8¢ / 15.8¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.6%)
Change 24h-1.35pt
Change 7d+0.30pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 61/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$8,222
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,010 / $20,456
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score61.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 43 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.85
RSI (14, hourly)42.9
Realized vol 7d0.27pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 750d 5h.
Time to resolve750d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (25)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.