← Explore · Polymarket · Market 559653
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 14.8%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability14.8%
Bid / ask / mid14.8¢ / 14.9¢ / 14.8¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.7%)
Change 24h+0.10pt
Change 7d-2.90pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 59/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$8,051
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$8,705 / $10,467
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score59.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.65
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.16pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 750d 5h.
Time to resolve750d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (25)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.