← Explore · Polymarket · Market 559657
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 0.2%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability0.2%
Bid / ask / mid0.1¢ / 0.2¢ / 0.1¢
Spread0.1¢ (66.7%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 57/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$102,068
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$784 / $13,944
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)12
Liquidity score56.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 459706891028368.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean459706891028368.19
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.00pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 750d 2h.
Time to resolve750d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (25)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.