← Explore · Polymarket · Market 559658
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.3%, down 0.8pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability6.3%
Bid / ask / mid6.3¢ / 6.4¢ / 6.3¢
Spread0.1¢ (1.6%)
Change 24h-0.80pt
Change 7d+0.10pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 64/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$22,656
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$13,037 / $16,182
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score64.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.97
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.07pt
Change 1h-0.60pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 750d 5h.
Time to resolve750d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (25)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.