← Explore · Polymarket · Market 559676
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 0.2%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability0.2%
Bid / ask / mid0.1¢ / 0.3¢ / 0.2¢
Spread0.2¢ (100.0%)
Change 24h+0.05pt
Change 7d+0.05pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 57/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$170,923
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$119 / $16,577
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score57.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 5.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean5.53
RSI (14, hourly)66.7
Realized vol 7d0.01pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 750d 5h.
Time to resolve750d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (25)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.