← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5598478
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 16.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability16.0%
Bid / ask / mid15.0¢ / 16.0¢ / 15.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (6.5%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d-3.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 24% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$537
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$6,349 / $5,179
Imbalance24% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.42
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.30pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 5d 20h.
Time to resolve5d 20h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.