← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5605528
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by June 30, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 67.0%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability67.0%
Bid / ask / mid58.0¢ / 61.0¢ / 59.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (5.0%)
Change 24h+1.50pt
Change 7d+7.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 27% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,259
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,262 / $1,714
Imbalance27% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score36.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 11 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.22
RSI (14, hourly)11.1
Realized vol 7d1.11pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 254d 4h.
Time to resolve254d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.