← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5605529
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 37.0%, up 4.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability37.0%
Bid / ask / mid37.0¢ / 38.0¢ / 37.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.7%)
Change 24h+4.50pt
Change 7d-4.50pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 17% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$37,266
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,218 / $1,640
Imbalance17% bid
Large trades (>$1k)4
Liquidity score46.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.37
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.87pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 163d 4h.
Time to resolve163d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.