← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5611044

Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?

31.8% implied · bid 31.3¢ · ask 32.3¢

☆ Log in to track ☆ Log in to set an alert

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 32.2%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability32.2%

Bid / ask / mid31.3¢ / 32.3¢ / 31.8¢

Spread1.0¢ (3.1%)

Change 24h+0.45pt

Change 7d-0.30pt

Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 23% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,511

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$59,348 / $92,574

Imbalance23% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score95.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 80 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.6σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.63

RSI (14, hourly)80.0

Realized vol 7d0.13pt

Change 1h-0.05pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 15d 5h.

Time to resolve15d 5h

Resolution sourceunknown

Rules riskhigh (70)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.