← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5611045

Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?

62.5% implied · bid 62.0¢ · ask 62.9¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 62.7%, down 0.0pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.

Implied probability62.7%

Bid / ask / mid62.0¢ / 62.9¢ / 62.5¢

Spread0.9¢ (1.4%)

Change 24h-0.05pt

Change 7d+7.00pt

Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 96/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$448

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$15,803 / $362,561

Imbalance5% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score95.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 80 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.03

RSI (14, hourly)80.0

Realized vol 7d0.30pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 15d 5h.

Time to resolve15d 5h

Resolution sourceunknown

Rules riskhigh (70)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.