← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5611740
Will XRP reach $1.40 in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 43.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
Implied probability43.0%
Bid / ask / mid40.0¢ / 46.0¢ / 43.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (14.0%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7d-9.00pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 21/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$520 / $598
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score20.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 37 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.15
RSI (14, hourly)36.5
Realized vol 7d3.55pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.