← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5611879
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.6%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.
Implied probability3.6%
Bid / ask / mid2.9¢ / 3.5¢ / 3.2¢
Spread0.6¢ (18.8%)
Change 24h+1.50pt
Change 7d-4.50pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 59/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$66,993
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$11,070 / $13,000
Imbalance9% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score59.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 55 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.86
RSI (14, hourly)54.8
Realized vol 7d0.26pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.