← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5611881
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 31.8%, down 0.3pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability31.8%
Bid / ask / mid30.8¢ / 31.8¢ / 31.3¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.2%)
Change 24h-0.25pt
Change 7d+4.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 15% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,514
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$28,817 / $90,118
Imbalance15% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score95.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 56 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.43
RSI (14, hourly)56.3
Realized vol 7d0.34pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.