← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5611882
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 55.7%, down 2.3pt over 24h, on a 0.5¢ spread.
Implied probability55.7%
Bid / ask / mid56.4¢ / 56.9¢ / 56.6¢
Spread0.5¢ (0.9%)
Change 24h-2.35pt
Change 7d+5.60pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 98/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$12,756
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$21,874 / $186,757
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score97.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 6 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.30
RSI (14, hourly)5.8
Realized vol 7d0.66pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.