← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5612095
Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 60.8%, up 0.4pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability60.8%
Bid / ask / mid61.2¢ / 61.4¢ / 61.3¢
Spread0.2¢ (0.3%)
Change 24h+0.45pt
Change 7d+2.65pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 61/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,175
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$8,381 / $15,012
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score60.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.19
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.17pt
Change 1h+0.45pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.