← Explore · Polymarket · Market 561229
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
23.6% implied · bid 23.6¢ · ask 23.7¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 23.7%, down 1.6pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability23.7%
Bid / ask / mid23.6¢ / 23.7¢ / 23.6¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.4%)
Change 24h-1.55pt
Change 7d+0.05pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 100/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$25,381
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$81,961 / $44,681
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score99.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.72
RSI (14, hourly)66.7
Realized vol 7d0.16pt
Change 1h+0.25pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 794d 7h.
Time to resolve794d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%