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Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

12.8% implied · bid 12.8¢ · ask 12.9¢

The market prices this at 12.9%, up 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability12.9%

Bid / ask / mid12.8¢ / 12.9¢ / 12.8¢

Spread0.1¢ (0.8%)

Change 24h+0.15pt

Change 7d-0.70pt

Moderately liquid (score 68/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$10,912

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$25,437 / $12,442

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score68.4 / 100

RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.48

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.17pt

Change 1h+0.05pt

Resolves in 794d 7h.

Time to resolve794d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%