← Explore · Polymarket · Market 561261
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.3%, down 0.4pt over 24h, on a 0.5¢ spread.
Implied probability10.3%
Bid / ask / mid9.8¢ / 10.3¢ / 10.1¢
Spread0.5¢ (5.0%)
Change 24h-0.40pt
Change 7d-0.30pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 59/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,477
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,709 / $16,544
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score58.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.91
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.10pt
Change 1h-0.30pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 750d 3h.
Time to resolve750d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.