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Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

43.8% implied · bid 43.7¢ · ask 43.8¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 43.8%, down 2.5pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability43.8%

Bid / ask / mid43.7¢ / 43.8¢ / 43.8¢

Spread0.1¢ (0.2%)

Change 24h-2.45pt

Change 7d-4.70pt

Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 100/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$45,499

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$109,083 / $43,551

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)3

Liquidity score99.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.50

RSI (14, hourly)0.0

Realized vol 7d0.20pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 750d 5h.

Time to resolve750d 5h

Resolution sourceunknown

Rules riskmedium (25)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.