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Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

50.1% implied · bid 50.1¢ · ask 50.2¢

The market prices this at 50.1%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability50.1%

Bid / ask / mid50.1¢ / 50.2¢ / 50.1¢

Spread0.1¢ (0.2%)

Change 24h-0.45pt

Change 7d+2.40pt

Deep and tight (score 100/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$6,099

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$65,142 / $74,233

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score99.5 / 100

RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.12

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.23pt

Change 1h+0.10pt

Resolves in 794d 7h.

Time to resolve794d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%