← Explore · Polymarket · Market 561975

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

14.8% implied · bid 14.7¢ · ask 14.8¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 14.8%, up 1.6pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability14.8%

Bid / ask / mid14.7¢ / 14.8¢ / 14.8¢

Spread0.1¢ (0.7%)

Change 24h+1.60pt

Change 7d+0.00pt

Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 78/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$93,689

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$45,081 / $11,167

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)2

Liquidity score77.6 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.36

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.06pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 750d 5h.

Time to resolve750d 5h

Resolution sourceunknown

Rules riskmedium (25)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.