← Explore · Polymarket · Market 562803

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

8.5% implied · bid 8.0¢ · ask 9.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 9.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability9.0%

Bid / ask / mid8.0¢ / 9.0¢ / 8.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (11.8%)

Change 24h-1.00pt

Change 7d-1.00pt

Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$145,737

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$346,807 / $299,220

Imbalance8% bid

Large trades (>$1k)5

Liquidity score95.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.9σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.94

RSI (14, hourly)0.0

Realized vol 7d0.08pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 15d 5h.

Time to resolve15d 5h

Resolution sourceunknown

Rules riskhigh (85)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.