← Explore · Polymarket · Market 562831
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid8.0¢ / 9.0¢ / 8.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (11.8%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$28,514
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$285,711 / $376,171
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score95.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.74
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.14pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.