← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5628380
Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.2%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability2.2%
Bid / ask / mid2.3¢ / 2.4¢ / 2.4¢
Spread0.1¢ (4.3%)
Change 24h-0.10pt
Change 7d-0.75pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 55/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$11,100
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$9,378 / $1,434
Imbalance9% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score54.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 40 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.64
RSI (14, hourly)40.0
Realized vol 7d0.06pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.