← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5628381
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 31.8%, down 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability31.8%
Bid / ask / mid31.8¢ / 31.9¢ / 31.9¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.3%)
Change 24h-0.20pt
Change 7d+0.05pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 58/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 18% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,522
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$13,109 / $3,173
Imbalance18% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score57.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.09
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.11pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.