← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5628382
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 65.4%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.7¢ spread.
Implied probability65.4%
Bid / ask / mid64.8¢ / 65.5¢ / 65.1¢
Spread0.7¢ (1.1%)
Change 24h+0.10pt
Change 7d+3.55pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 97/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,075
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,789 / $225,721
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score96.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 36 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.88
RSI (14, hourly)35.7
Realized vol 7d0.11pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.