← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5640323
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 12.5%, up 8.8pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability12.5%
Bid / ask / mid12.4¢ / 12.5¢ / 12.4¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.8%)
Change 24h+8.85pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$13,840
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$189 / $259
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 78 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.79
RSI (14, hourly)78.3
Realized vol 7d1.16pt
Change 1h+2.45pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 16h.
Time to resolve3d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.