← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5640344
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 11.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability11.0%
Bid / ask / mid11.0¢ / 12.0¢ / 11.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (8.7%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 14% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,856
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$575 / $267
Imbalance14% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 6 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.09
RSI (14, hourly)6.2
Realized vol 7d1.35pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 16h.
Time to resolve3d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.