← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5648279
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 43.0%, down 6.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability43.0%
Bid / ask / mid42.0¢ / 43.0¢ / 42.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.4%)
Change 24h-6.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,885
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,510 / $2,445
Imbalance12% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score48.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.71
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d1.04pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 7d 1h.
Time to resolve7d 1h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.