← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5652832
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 78.0%, down 5.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability78.0%
Bid / ask / mid73.0¢ / 76.0¢ / 74.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (4.0%)
Change 24h-5.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$238
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$98 / $989
Imbalance16% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 25 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.49
RSI (14, hourly)25.0
Realized vol 7d1.91pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 42d 0h.
Time to resolve42d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.