← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5653746
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 20?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.2%, down 11.4pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.
Implied probability4.2%
Bid / ask / mid2.9¢ / 3.2¢ / 3.0¢
Spread0.3¢ (9.8%)
Change 24h-11.40pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$8,281
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$144 / $248
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score48.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 52 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.77
RSI (14, hourly)51.8
Realized vol 7d2.20pt
Change 1h+0.25pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 16h.
Time to resolve0d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.