← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5653752
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 20?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 50.0%, up 13.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability50.0%
Bid / ask / mid45.0¢ / 47.0¢ / 46.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (4.3%)
Change 24h+13.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,517
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,465 / $3,084
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 45 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.31
RSI (14, hourly)45.3
Realized vol 7d2.52pt
Change 1h-1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 16h.
Time to resolve0d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.