← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5653755
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 20?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.8%, down 7.6pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability3.8%
Bid / ask / mid3.1¢ / 3.5¢ / 3.3¢
Spread0.4¢ (12.1%)
Change 24h-7.65pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,247
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$183 / $247
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 15 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.03
RSI (14, hourly)14.9
Realized vol 7d2.17pt
Change 1h-1.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 16h.
Time to resolve0d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.