← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5653786
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 20?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 98.9%, up 5.2pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability98.9%
Bid / ask / mid98.9¢ / 99.0¢ / 99.0¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.1%)
Change 24h+5.25pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 81/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 49% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$35,136
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$16,013 / $46,674
Imbalance49% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score80.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 44 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.21
RSI (14, hourly)44.2
Realized vol 7d1.85pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 17h.
Time to resolve0d 17h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.