← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5653789
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 20?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 96.1%, up 22.7pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability96.1%
Bid / ask / mid96.1¢ / 96.3¢ / 96.2¢
Spread0.2¢ (0.2%)
Change 24h+22.70pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 99/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 34% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$44,366
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$14,530 / $89,765
Imbalance34% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score99.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 51 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.82
RSI (14, hourly)50.5
Realized vol 7d3.67pt
Change 1h+0.75pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 17h.
Time to resolve0d 17h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.