← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5653790
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on October 20?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.3%, down 9.6pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.
Implied probability2.3%
Bid / ask / mid1.7¢ / 2.0¢ / 1.8¢
Spread0.3¢ (16.2%)
Change 24h-9.55pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$7,285
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$25 / $92
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 52 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.80
RSI (14, hourly)51.5
Realized vol 7d10.93pt
Change 1h-0.80pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 16h.
Time to resolve0d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.