← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5653796
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on October 20?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 55.0%, up 19.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability55.0%
Bid / ask / mid54.0¢ / 57.0¢ / 55.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (5.4%)
Change 24h+19.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 37/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$621
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,754 / $2,669
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score37.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 47 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.77
RSI (14, hourly)47.1
Realized vol 7d4.86pt
Change 1h+5.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 16h.
Time to resolve0d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.