← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5653799
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on October 20?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.9%, down 6.7pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability2.9%
Bid / ask / mid2.9¢ / 3.0¢ / 2.9¢
Spread0.1¢ (3.4%)
Change 24h-6.70pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$6,826
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$64 / $130
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 26 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.63
RSI (14, hourly)26.4
Realized vol 7d6.51pt
Change 1h+0.35pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 16h.
Time to resolve0d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.