← Explore · Polymarket · Market 567621

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

3.7% implied · bid 3.6¢ · ask 3.8¢

The market prices this at 3.6%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.

Implied probability3.6%

Bid / ask / mid3.6¢ / 3.8¢ / 3.7¢

Spread0.2¢ (5.4%)

Change 24h+0.05pt

Change 7d-0.15pt

Deep and tight (score 79/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$11,188

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$44,738 / $15,430

Imbalance9% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score79.1 / 100

RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.46

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.02pt

Change 1h+0.05pt

Resolves in 117d 6h.

Time to resolve117d 6h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%