← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5686977
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 89.0%, down 3.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability89.0%
Bid / ask / mid87.0¢ / 89.0¢ / 88.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.3%)
Change 24h-3.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 27% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$73,576
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,031 / $11,777
Imbalance27% bid
Large trades (>$1k)6
Liquidity score47.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 47 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.35
RSI (14, hourly)47.3
Realized vol 7d3.56pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 5d 4h.
Time to resolve5d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.