← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5686979
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 91.6%, down 4.0pt over 24h, on a 0.5¢ spread.
Implied probability91.6%
Bid / ask / mid91.2¢ / 91.7¢ / 91.5¢
Spread0.5¢ (0.5%)
Change 24h-4.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 98/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$638,702
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$31,894 / $167,522
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)35
Liquidity score97.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 47 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.27
RSI (14, hourly)46.8
Realized vol 7d3.34pt
Change 1h-0.70pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 4h.
Time to resolve3d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.