← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5686982
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 85.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability85.0%
Bid / ask / mid83.0¢ / 84.0¢ / 83.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.2%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 54/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 25% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$72,202
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$10,403 / $7,084
Imbalance25% bid
Large trades (>$1k)5
Liquidity score53.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 49 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.51
RSI (14, hourly)48.6
Realized vol 7d3.70pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 9d 4h.
Time to resolve9d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.